Potential Tropical Cyclone Six forecast to become a tropical storm

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six does not yet have a well-defined closed circulation to be named Tropical Storm Fred…yet.

According to the National Hurricane Center, satellite imagery shows that the disturbance has become better organized since yesterday, and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are at tropical storm strength.

  • The system was moving WNW at 17 mph with winds sustained at 35 mph in the latest NHC update. 

The system continues to move West-Northwest and will likely do so for the next 72 hours, according to Patrick Maddox, Okaloosa Public Safety Director. The system is forecast to then turn to the Northwest and decrease in forward speed.

“Some weakening should occur due to land and dry air interaction, but restrengthening is also forecast,” said Maddox. “Beyond that, models vary and interaction with landmasses may play a significant role in the strength and path of the storm at that point.”

Maddox continued by saying that “although the official forecast at this point calls for the system to remain a tropical storm all the way up to about 28 degrees North Latitude, I don’t put a whole lot of faith in that unless there is significant land interaction.”

  • “Lots of time, uncertainty and room for this forecast to be adjusted significantly in track and intensity,” he continued.

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